The United States, China, and Taiwan

This special report, authored by Robert D. Blackwill and Philip Zelikow under the auspices of the Council on Foreign Relations, examines the escalating tensions between the United States, China, and Taiwan. It provides a strategic framework to prevent potential military conflict in the Taiwan Strait. The report analyzes historical developments, the evolving U.S.-Taiwan policy, China's assertive foreign policy under Xi Jinping, and the growing rivalry between the U.S. and China. It outlines three possible scenarios for conflict over Taiwan and proposes policy prescriptions, including maintaining the One China policy, fostering international partnerships, supporting Taiwan's global participation, and enhancing U.S.-Taiwan economic ties. The authors aim to deter Chinese coercion while safeguarding U.S. vital national interests. Intended for policymakers, scholars, and those interested in foreign relations, the report underscores the critical importance of diplomacy and strategy in managing the U.S.-China-Taiwan dynamic to ensure regional stability and global security.